B U L L E T E N

 "Long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas for the second half of navigation (August-October) 2020».

                                          Saint Petersburg August 2020

August Bulletin of ice forecasts for the second half of the navigation season it contains General information about expected ice conditions in Russian regions Arctic seas in the second half of navigation in 2020 (August-October). For estimates of the background of ice conditions the forecast is compared with the average annual value (the norm calculated for 1970-2010). the Boundaries of the seas and their areas are shown in Fig. 1. Clarification of forecasts, as well as more detailed and detailed information about expected ice conditions in the Russian Arctic seas can be provided interested consumers on request.

Barents sea

In General, a light background of ice conditions is expected in the sea.

In General, the sea ice is expected to be 8-14% less in August-October average annual values:

August-0% (norm 11%), September-0% (norm 8%),

October – 1% (the norm is 15%).

The Western sea area is expected to be 7-14% less Arctic average annual values: August-0% (norm 11%), September-0% (norm 7%),

October – 1% (the norm is 15%).

The North-Eastern sea area is expected to be 15-24% less Arctic average annual values: August-0% (norm 20%), September-0% (norm 15%),

October – 3% (norm 27%).

In the South-Eastern region of the sea in August-October, a complete absence is expected drifting ice.

Kara sea In September and October, the complete absence of cohesive ice is expected

The Novaya Zemlya ice massif in the South-Western part of the sea.

In the second half of navigation in the South-Western part of the Kara sea is expected light background of ice conditions (Fig. 2).

The area of the Severozemelsky ice massif in the first decade of September is expected 0% (norm 17%), in the third decade of September – 0% (norm 11%).

Area of the Northern Kara ice massif in the second decade of September 0% is expected (the norm is 39%).

In the second half of navigation in the North-Eastern part of the Kara sea is expected light background of ice conditions (Fig. 2).

The beginning of stable ice formation in the sea is expected 10-15 days later average annual terms: O. Dixon-October 17 (norm October 6), O. Russian October 13 (norm 27 September), Cape Chelyuskin-October 9 (norm 22 September).

The young ice is expected to reach a thickness of 20-25 cm 10-15 days later average annual terms: Dixon-November 3 (norm October 21), Russian – 2 November (norm 17 October), Cape Chelyuskin-31 October (norm 13 October).

Laptev sea

The area of the Taimyr ice massif in the first decade of September is expected to be 0% (norm 32%), in the third decade of September – 0% (norm 26%).

In the second half of navigation in the Western part of the sea a light background is expected ice conditions (Fig. 2).

The area of the Yansky ice massif in the first decade of September is expected to be equal to 0% (norm 5%), in the third decade of September – 0% (norm 2%).

In the second half of navigation in the Eastern part of the sea a light background is expected ice conditions (Fig. 2).

The beginning of stable ice formation in the sea is expected to be 9-14 days later average annual time: along the coast in the Western part of the sea-October 12-15 (norm October 1), along the coast in the Eastern part of the sea-October 13-16 (norm October 4).

The beginning of stable ice formation in the main points is expected: O. Andreya - October 9 (norm 25 September), Tiksi Bay-October 11 (norm 4 October), Cape Kigiliakh – October 16 (norm of October 1), DM. Laptev Ave. - October 13, (norm of October 1),Sannikov Ave. - October 18 (norm October 4).

The young ice is expected to reach a thickness of 20-25 cm in the following terms:

Andrey island – October 23 (norm October 17), Tiksi Bay-October 25 (norm October 19),

Cape Kigilyakh - October 30 (norm October 20), DM. Laptev Ave. - October 28, (norm October 21), Sannikov Ave. - October 30 (norm October 21).

East Siberian sea

The area of the Novosibirsk ice massif in the first decade of September is expected to 0% (norm 17%), in the third decade of September – 0% (norm 13%).

In the second half of navigation in the Western part of the sea a light background is expected ice conditions (Fig. 2).

The area of the Iona ice mass in the first decade of September is expected to be 5% (norm 55%), in the third decade of September – 0% (norm 51%).

In the second half of navigation in the Eastern part of the sea a light background is expected ice conditions (Fig. 2).

The beginning of stable ice formation in the sea is expected 15-25 days later average long-term period: Cape Shalaurov-October 15 (norm September 30),

O. Chetyrehstolbovoy-October 18 (norm October 4), Cape Shelagsky-October 20 (norm October 6), Billings point-October 28 (norm October 3).

The young ice is expected to reach a thickness of 20-25 cm in the following terms:

Cape Shalaurova-October 25 (norm October 20), Chetyrehstolbovoy island-November 1 (norm October 22), Cape Shelagsky-November 5 (norm October 22), Cape Billings-November 8 (norm 22 October).

Chukchi sea

The area of the Wrangel ice massif in September is expected in the first decade 0% (norm 6%), in the third decade 0% (norm 6%).

In the second half of navigation in southwest part of the sea is expected to light the background ice conditions (Fig. 2).

The beginning of stable ice formation in the de long Strait and along the Chukchi the coast is expected on average 25 days later than the mean multiyear dates:

Cape Schmidt – October 26 (norm 1 October), Wrangel island Nov -2 (rule 7), Cape Vankarem -1 Nov (norm 6 October).

The young ice is expected to reach a thickness of 20-25 cm in the following terms:

Cape Schmidt-November 16 (norm October 25), Wrangel island-November 14 (norm October 26), Cape Vankarem – November 18 (norm October 27).

Thus, in the second half of navigation in 2020 in all Arctic seas the following background of ice conditions is expected (Fig. 2):

легкий light – in the Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukotka;

implementation of heavy background in the Arctic seas in the second half of the year navigation is not expected.

The forecast was developed by employees of the laboratory of long-term ice forecasts Federal state budgetary institution "AANII": head. laboratory, PhD Yulin A. V., senior researcher Turdakovym A. B., leading researcher, D. SC. Egorov A. G., B. S., Pavlova E. A., M. B. C. the M. V. Karatunova, ved. eng. Timofeeva, A. B., of the Vedas. ing. Lebedev N. V.

Deputy Director of fsbi"aani"                                                                     I. M. Ashik

August 20, 2020